Is Louisiana now gaining population?
Published: Feb 03, 2025
In December, the Census Bureau reported that Louisiana gained rather than lost population for the first time since the 2020 Census. As is their routine, the Census Bureau also revised their 2021, 2022, and 2023 total estimates for Louisiana, and found that the estimated population for Louisiana was slightly higher than previously reported in those years, too.
Louisiana Total Population Estimates
Source: The Data Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Population Estimates Vintage 2023 and Vintage 2024.
Does this mean that Louisiana’s concerns about population loss are now over? Maybe and maybe not. Here’s why: 1) One year does not make a trend, 2) In upcoming years, the Census Bureau plans to improve its new methodology and these numbers may be revised downward or upward, and 3) If these estimates prove to be accurate, Louisiana’s population growth is largely based on an increasing number of new international immigrants.
But let’s start with the basics. Each year the Census Bureau produces total population estimates for the U.S., each state and county. These estimates are based on the once-every-ten-year census headcount to which the Census Bureau adds births, subtracts deaths, and adds net international migration.
Birth and death data are very reliable because they come from birth and death certificates that are generated by counties and shared with the Bureau through each state.
Estimating the number of net international migrants is more complicated. In the past, the Census Bureau used results from their American Community Survey. But recently, the Bureau began examining administrative data on new international immigrants (specifically records on lawful permanent residents, visa issuances, international student enrollees, refugee admissions, and border releases) and found a large difference between these administrative records and their survey results starting in 2020.
The 2024 estimates incorporated these administrative data and concluded that there were about 1.8 million more (than previously estimated) new immigrants in the U.S. between 2020 and 2023, and 2.8 million new immigrants arriving between 2023 and 2024. This pushed the estimated U.S. resident population upward significantly.
U.S. Total Population Estimates
Source: The Data Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Population Estimates Vintage 2023 and Vintage 2024.
It also pushed the Louisiana estimate upward. The Bureau now estimates that Louisiana had 15,000 more new international immigrants (than previously estimated) between 2020 and 2023, and received an additional 23,000 international immigrants between 2023 and 2024. This is largely what drove the estimated population increase in Louisiana in 2024. That same year, more than 17,000 more Louisianans moved out of the state than moved in from elsewhere in the U.S., nearly 50,000 died, and only about 54,000 babies were born in Louisiana.
The question remains, however, whether these Louisiana immigration numbers are accurate. To distribute the national data of immigrants to each state, the Bureau used results from their American Community Survey. However, the people who respond to the American Community Survey and indicate they are recent immigrants to the U.S. may have a different geographic distribution than people found in national administrative records on refugees and border releases.
The Census Bureau plans to adjust these estimates in upcoming years to more accurately distribute the number of international immigrants to each state and county. When they do so, the Louisiana total population estimates may be higher or lower than currently reported.
But regardless, immigration is a large part of population growth across many states and counties. It is not an overstatement to say that the nation is now largely dependent on international immigration for population growth. This is largely due to our rapidly aging population, which means that “natural increase” (the number of births over deaths) in the U.S. is now less than 1/3 of what it was two decades ago.
Domestic migration — residents moving from one state to another — has also been decreasing in recent years. Even Texas — where leaders boast significant population attraction — has experienced a decline in domestic in-migration. In 2022, over 200,000 people moved to Texas from other states. By 2024, domestic in-migration to Texas had fallen to below 100,000.
It’s no surprise then that international immigration is a major contributor to population growth in most states. In a stark example, were it not for international immigration, the population of Pennsylvania would have shrunk by more than 20,000 people from 2020 to 2024 due to out-migration and more deaths than births. Instead, Pennsylvania’s total population has grown by about 61,000 since 2020 due to an influx of 82,000 new international immigrants.
As “natural increase” in the U.S. continues to fall, immigrants will play an increasingly large role in population stability or growth. If Louisiana aims to increase its population, it should expect that a large portion of these newcomers will be international immigrants.
Acknowledgements
The Data Center wishes to thank Chris Dick of Demographic Analytics Advisors and Rachel Cortes of Claritas for their insightful feedback on an earlier draft. The Data Center wishes to thank the Foundation for Louisiana, Walton Family Foundation, National Conference on Citizenship, W.K. Kellogg Foundation, Kresge Foundation, J.P. Morgan Chase Foundation, United Way of Southeast Louisiana, RosaMary Foundation, and the Keller Family Foundation for their generous support.
Endnotes
Net international migration, of course, is the sum of all people coming into the U.S. from another country minus those leaving the US to move to another country in a given year.